Nasa’s Swift Observatory Nears Reentry After Failed Rescue
NASA expects its 22-year-old Swift Observatory to reenter Earth’s atmosphere on November 4, though a separate report cites a later forecast.
NASA’s Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory is nearing reentry after almost 22 years in orbit and an unsuccessful attempt to raise its altitude. The Verge and Engadget report that it is expected to enter Earth’s atmosphere on November 4. Wired, however, cites a US Space Force estimate of around November 6. All three reports say the risk to people on the ground is low.
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When will Swift return?
Engadget cites a forecast of approximately 3:30 a.m. Eastern time on November 4, with an 11-hour margin of uncertainty. The Verge reports the same approximate time and says NASA and the Space Force will continue monitoring Swift and updating predictions. Wired gives a later estimate of around November 6, so the reports do not agree on the expected date.
NASA expects most of the roughly 3,200-pound observatory to burn up during reentry, though some components could reach the ground, according to The Verge and Engadget. The Verge says NASA puts the chance of harm to anyone on Earth at approximately 1 in 2,100. It also reports that, because of Swift’s orbit, surviving debris would be limited to an area between 20.6 degrees south and 20.6 degrees north latitude. Where any fragments might land remains uncertain.
Why the rescue failed
Swift’s orbit had been declining, leaving the observatory at risk of returning to Earth. Wired reports that increased solar activity in 2024 expanded the upper atmosphere, increasing drag on the spacecraft. Swift lacked a propulsion system that could correct its orbit.
NASA launched a rescue effort in July using a robotic spacecraft called LINK, which was intended to move Swift into a higher orbit. According to Engadget, LINK developed attitude-control problems that prevented it from maintaining its orientation and interfered with communications. NASA subsequently ended the effort. Wired reports that the rescue mission cost $30 million and had aimed to raise Swift’s orbit by 150 miles.
A long scientific mission
Launched in November 2004, Swift was designed primarily to detect and study gamma-ray bursts. Wired says its three telescopes helped locate those events and relay their positions to other observatories for follow-up. A mission originally planned to last only a few years continued for more than two decades.
Engadget reports that Swift observed more than 2,000 gamma-ray bursts, along with supernovas and other activity across the cosmos. Wired says the observatory made its final observation on October 20, after its low orbit made stable observations impossible. Although the spacecraft’s operations have ended, Wired reports that its archive of observations remains available for future research.
Sources
This story was compiled by AI from the reports below. Read the originals for the full details.